The Alien Scenarios project:
Developing and applying scenarios of biological invasions for the 21st century
From 01.04.2019 to 30.03.2022
The AlienScenarios project will, for the first time, evaluate the range of plausible futures of biological invasions for the 21st century at different spatial scales and for a range of taxonomic groups. It will combine the strategic forward-looking methodology of scenario planning with advanced modelling approaches to construct plausible global mid-term (2050) and long-term (2100) futures of biological invasions and their impacts.
The project is divided into 7 interrelated working packages for:
- Developing the first global scenarios for biological invasions for the 21st century.
- Implementing global quantitative models of future alien species numbers under different biological invasion scenarios.
- Evaluating the future impacts of biological invasions on the environment and human livelihoods under these different scenarios at a global scale.
- Establishing continental (Europe) scenarios and models of biological invasions to assess the effectiveness of the EU regulation of invasive alien species.
- Assessing the relationships between alien species traits and future impacts of biological invasions.
- Expanding beyond temperate developed regions to understudied but highly biodiverse regions, and considering invasions in the context of the Global South, taking Panama as a study example.
- Analysing the consequences of biological invasions in the 21st century under different scenarios for policy and alien species management.
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